A decade following the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that split the country and caused turmoil, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two respected commentators from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our region remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have studied the political, financial and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the matter with a tour of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts all parties, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extremely divided society where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won lack clarity exactly what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim this point is imminent, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and unionists play down the prospect, making it uncertain if and when there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unification has obscured the lack of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which may surpass that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has occurred in scholarly circles but very few elected officials or activists want to engage even with the essentials. To illustrate, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, no writer advocates unification or the existing arrangement. They composes two articles that seek impartiality in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling financial and social figures, past examples and structural examples.
Discussions range over flags and symbols, taxes, health services, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of loyalist violence. The goal is to inform and stimulate conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there is still lacking a discussion," said O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an recognition of the notion that there might be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens say they prefer unification but oppose greater financial contributions or introducing a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government must establish what the plan from nationalist groups is aside from just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride believes a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it might occur abruptly. "You could have just a mad or a bad or a incompetent government minister who says: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate points, he stated. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and somebody will eventually be defeated but each side has possesses something to learn from the opposing arguments."
Appeal for Wider Dialogue
Westminster must participate in the debate, urged O’Toole. "This is about your state. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish issue."
