Colombian President, Gustavo Petro, is embarking on a critical trip to Washington to confer with American leader Donald Trump. This marks the initial in-person meeting for the two leaders after months of rising tensions and sharp exchanges.
Topics for Discussion
The situation in Venezuela, narcotics trade, oil, security, and US strikes on alleged narco-boats are set to be top on the agenda when they meet at the White House on Tuesday.
Background of Tensions
While the two men were cordial in a phone call following a recent US military operation, Petro has since said he believes there is a "serious risk" of armed intervention against Colombia. Trump, in turn, has previously remarked that a such action in Colombia "seems like a good idea".
The upcoming summit comes after an extended period of the two leaders exchanging criticisms. Petro has often criticised repeated US attacks on alleged narco-vessels in the regional waters, as well as the US administration's border policies.
"He changed his attitude," Trump was quoted as stating prior to the White House talks.
Areas of Disagreement
From Washington's perspective, Trump has charged Petro's administration of not doing enough to stop the flow of cocaine toward the United States, and has pledged to extend strikes to terrestrial objectives across the area.
But, the hostility seemed to subside after a "polite" telephone conversation between the two presidents, which a source from Bogotá later described as an 180-degree turn "by both parties".
Mediating Role
According to insiders, a key figure – US Senator Rand Paul – was instrumental in facilitating the dialogue. "I believe in diplomacy and I thought our ties were going in the wrong direction," the lawmaker was quoted as saying. "And I'd like to see our relationship to improve."
Border Security and the ELN
Ahead of Tuesday's visit, Colombian indicated that much of the discussion would center on mutual US and Colombian concerns over security in the neighboring country, with which Colombia has an long frontier.
A significant portion of that frontier is controlled of the ELN. This armed faction, founded in the 1960s, dominates narco-trade, extortion, smuggling, and unlawful extraction in border states and reportedly collaborates with compromised officials within the Caracas administration.
From the US perspective, addressing the challenge of the ELN will be vital to ensuring safety for US firms engaged in Venezuela's oil industry. Experts note that the ELN has the capacity to disrupt economic ambitions by targeting foreign investors and staff, as it has in the past done in Colombia.
Counter-Narcotics Cooperation
An similarly urgent matter for the two presidents will be the fight against cocaine trafficking from Colombia, the global largest producer of the drug. In November, Petro ordered a halt on information exchange with US authorities following comments from Washington.
The US has, in turn, formally designated Colombia as a country that has "not met its obligations" in combating drug trafficking. It has also enacted sanctions on figures in Petro's government, encompassing the leader and his relatives.
"There is no fight without Colombia," stated a regional security expert. "The threat to cut off Colombian intelligence could also weaken all investigations."
Potential Outcomes
Despite several issues for collaboration, the potential for a confrontation remains. "The US President's stance can be volatile," commented a ex-official. "My suspicion is that Petro will walk in with some concessions to avert Trump's ire... But one never knows."
But for Petro, even a difficult encounter could be beneficial. His presidential term concludes in the coming months, and the outcome of the meeting could influence the electoral chances of his preferred successor.
"To an extent, he's kind of in a win-win position," noted a regional expert. "A positive outcome undermines criticism... If talks sour, he's defending national sovereignty. He could use that in his favor."
